Almost everyone agrees that COVID-19 will have a grave impact on employment in the country. But do the numbers indicate the extent of job losses? We look at the EPF payroll data on the number of subscribers till June 2020 to find an answer. In an attempt to control the spread of COVID-19 in India, the Central Government had imposed a nation-wide lockdown on 24 March 2020, for a period of 21 days, which was further extended thrice until 31 May 2020. The reports and visuals of migrant workers travelling back to their native places, indicated their apprehensions about the future due to the prevailing economic & pandemic situation. In context of the near zero economic activity during the lockdown period, there were many reports of job losses even in the formal sector. Surveys and reports of few independent organizations also point to substantial job losses because of the prevailing situation. As per a joint report released by ILO (International Labour Organization) & ADB (Asian Development Bank), nearly 41 lakh youth in India lost their jobs due to COVID-19. It also forecasted an increase in the youth un-employment rate to around 30% in 2020 compared to 23% in 2019. A report by independent organization CMIE, states that around 18.9 million salaried employees lost job since April’20. These are some of the estimates that provide a picture of the employment situation in India. However, the government of India has not yet released any official employment statistics for this period. The only comprehensive data available to analyse formal employment numbers in India is the EPF numbers released by the Ministry of Labour. In this story, we take a look at some of the official numbers available with various government departments like EPF information, data provided by RBI etc., to understand the employment situation in India, especially in the formal sector. Major fall in net new subscribers to EPF for the month of April ’2020 The Provisional Monthly Estimate of Payroll report published by Employee Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) India, provides numbers related to EPF contributions. This information gives a fair estimate of – total payroll during a period, new contributors to the EPF, members who have exited etc. This data can be used to estimate the number of active salaried employees, number of new employees, employees who left employment etc. It has to be noted that since the EPF is a voluntary scheme for those above a certain salary level, the correlation with these numbers may not be accurate. However, these numbers indicate a general trend. As per the EPF payroll estimates, the monthly average net new subscribers for the period 2019-20 (April-March) was 6.54 lakhs. The total number of net new subscribers added for the entire year of 2019-20 was more than 78.58 lakhs. It was an improvement over the previous year 2018-19, where in the total net new payroll for the year was around 61.12 lakhs i.e. the monthly average net new subscribers for that year was around 5.1 lakhs. The EPFO began furnishing these details from September 2017. During that financial year , the total net new payroll from September 2017 – March 2018 was 15.52 lakhs i.e. the monthly average net new subscribers was 2.21 lakhs. The report also provides monthly payroll figures for April – June 2020. As per the available data, the net new subscribers added in April 2020 fell to 20,164. It has improved in the next two months. May 2020 reported the net new subscribers increasing to 1.72 lakhs and June 2020 reporting the net new subscribers at pre-lockdown levels of around 6.55 lakhs. Gradual fall in number of New EPF members with a subsequent increase in the number of re-joined members The monthly net subscribers to the EPF is the net value of three components – New monthly subscribers, Members exited & members who re-joined EPF. The monthly average of ‘New EPF members’ during 2017-18 was 12.08 lakhs. This has gradually decreased in the next two years, with 11.62 lakhs in 2018-19 and 9.2 lakh in 2019-20. During the lockdown, there was a sharp decline in the number of new EPF members with 1.77 lakhs in April 2020. This has slightly improved in May 2020 and June 2020 with 3.03 lakh and 4.98 lakh new EPF subscribers respectively. Apart from the ‘New EPF Members’, the number of EPF members exiting has also shown a downward trend. During 2017-18, an average of around 11.03 lakhs exited EPF every month , which fell to a monthly average of 10.24 lakhs and 9.16 lakhs in 2018-19 and 2019-20 respectively. In April 2020, there were 4.08 lakh claims submitted to exit EPF. It increased in May 2020 to 4.45 lakh claims but fell in June 2020 to 2.96 lakhs.