As India & USA become close strategic partners, the possible India-USA trade deal becomes all the more critical. Data indicates that the overall volume of trade between India & USA has increased substantially in the last 10 years so much so that USA has overtaken China to become India’s largest trade partner in 2018-19 & 2019-20. As the US presidential elections come closer, we take a look at the India-USA trade of the last 10 years. As per the World Trade Statistical Review – 2020 report by World Trade Organization (WTO), USA is the World’s largest trader for the year 2019. As per the same report, India ranks 12 among the world countries in terms of the total value of trade. This includes the trade of both goods and services. Apart from being leading traders in the world, both the countries engage in considerable amount of trade between them. While India ranks 9 among the USA’s trading partners in goods for the year 2019, USA overtook China as India’s leading trade partner in 2018-19 and continued to stay in the top position in 2019-20. So, what has contributed towards this improved position of USA as India’s trade partner? Has there been any change in the trade policy or is there an increasing trend in the trade of specific goods? In this story, we take a look at India-USA trade numbers and analyse trends over the last few years with the current Trump administration being in the final year of the current tenure. In 10 years, trade increased by over 200% in rupee terms and over 95% in dollar terms As per the data available on India’s Department of Commerce’s Export-Import Data Bank, during 2010-11, the total value of trade between India and USA (both imports & exports) was Rs. 2.06 lakh crores. In the ensuing 10 years, the value of trade increased continuously to reach Rs. 6.29 lakh crores in 2019-20 i.e. more than 3 times the value of trade in 2010-11. However, the increase in dollar terms was not on the same scale. In 2010-11, the total value of trade was USD 45.34 billion which increased to USD 88.91 billion in 2019-20. The significant appreciation of the dollar against rupee may have also played a role in the greater increase of trade in rupee terms. During this period, the trade in dollar terms increased by around 96% compared to the over 200% increase in rupee terms. During this 10-year period, the greatest percentage increase in trade both in rupee & dollar terms was in 2011-12 when it increased over 34% in rupee terms & by over 28% in dollar terms compared to 2010-11. The year 2018-19 also marked a significant increase in trade with it increasing by over 28% in rupee terms and by over 18% in dollar terms compared to 2017-18. As highlighted earlier, 2018-19 was the year when USA claimed the top spot as India’s trading partner. Despite a fall in recent years, trade balance has increased substantially in the last 10 years India has an overall negative trade balance i.e. the value of the goods imported is higher than the value of the goods exported. However, the case of trade with USA is different as India has a trade surplus i.e. the value of exports to USA are higher than that of imports. In 2010-11, India had a trade surplus of Rs 23.8 thousand crores with the USA which in dollar terms was USD 5.24 billion. The trade surplus has now increased to Rs.1.22 lakh crores in 2019-20 which in dollar terms is USD 17.27 billion. The trade surplus was the highest in 2017-18 when it was Rs. 1.37 lakh crores and USD 21.27 billion. However, the trade surplus has fallen in both 2018-19 & 2019-20. The decrease in trade surplus coincides with the increase in overall trade in the last two years. Increase in the imports resulted in the fall of trade surplus Over the 10-year period between 2010-20, both the imports and exports have grown year on year in rupee terms (with the exception of 2013-14 & 2014-15 for imports). During this period, the total value of exports grew from Rs. 1.15 lakh crores in 2010-11 to Rs. 3.76 lakh crores 2019-20. The slow growth of overall trade during the period 2011-2016 is due to the slower growth of imports during this period. In the case of exports, there has been a consistent year on year increase in the value of goods exported. However, the net increase has seen a declining trend during 2011-2016, which has since recovered. The highest single-year net increase was in 2018-19 where the exports were valued at Rs. 3.66 lakh crores i.e. 57 thousand crores more than the previous year 2017-18. The year 2018-19 also saw a record increase in the value of imports. Goods worth Rs. 2.48 lakh crores were imported in 2018-19 which was Rs. 76.9 thousand crores more than the value of imports in 2017-18.