Turkey?s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in North Africa this week in what he is calling an expression of partnership with the emerging democracies of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. His trip coincides with a critical decline in relations with Israel and an attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo - as well as next week?s Palestinian bid for statehood at the United Nations. Erdogan?s ?Arab Spring? tour and recent public statements have raised concerns in some quarters that Turkey is looking to create an alliance with Egypt that could be hostile to Israel - and, in a much more general sense, is indicative of what some have termed ?neo-Ottomanism.?
Until recently, Turkey and Israel had been friendly. The thaw in relations, before they turned sour, dates back to 1949. That was the year Turkey formally recognized the Jewish state. Their friendship began to cool after the 2008-2009 Gaza war, and it was further strained by Israel?s 2010 raid on a Turkish aid ship to Gaza, which resulted in the deaths of nine Turkish activists onboard.
After a year-long investigation, the U.N. on September 2concluded that Israel had acted with ?excessive and unreasonable force,? in spite of ?organized and violent resistance? by passengers. The world body encouraged Israel to make an appropriate statement of regret.
Erdogan has expressed anger and dismay with Israel?s refusal to apologize for the attack. Consequently, Turkey suspended military trade with Israel, expelled top Israeli diplomats, expressed support of the Palestinian bid for statehood and vowed to provide naval support for any future aid flotillas to Gaza. Erdogan has also warned that he is prepared to order his navy to escort future aid flotillas to Gaza.
Ankara?s row with Israel, viewed in the context of Turkey?s refusal to participate in sanctions against Iran and its friendships with Syria and Sudan, has generated broader concerns that Turkey may realigning its political interests along Islamist lines and that the crisis with Israel is a part of a predetermined strategy of Islamization.
is a Middle East scholar at the Washington, D.C.-based (AEI). He accuses Turkey of delibaretely ?whipping up? sentiments against Israel. ?It wants to leverage that both domestically, in terms of its own politics, and also Turkey is making a claim for leadership of the Islamic world."
It should be noted that Turkey has been a staunchly secular state since 1928, just after the modern nation?s founding when a constitutional amendment was passed removing Islam as the state religion. Secularism and the removal of Ottoman era Islamic legal codes was a major priority of modern Turkey?s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The Constitution currently states that Turkey is a secular democratic republic.
Rubin believes it is no coincidence that Prime Minister Erdogan will this week address Arab foreign ministers. ?Turkish foreign policy is consciously being driven toward more Islamic leanings,? he said, ?and this is seen not only in the current situation, but this goes back to the diplomatic capital which Turkey is willing to expend in order to get the leadership of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC).?
The 56-member OIC, the second largest intergovernmental organization in the world, is currently headed by Turkish academic and diplomat Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, who recently condemned the U.N. report on the Israeli raid of the Gaza flotilla for what he called a ?whitewash? of Israel?s actions.
However, Erdogan declares himself to be an avowed advocate of secularism. In an interview aired by the Egyptian satellite channel Monday, Erdogan expressed hopes that Egypt would choose a secular over an Islamic government, similar to the Turkish model. He also stressed his conviction that secularism is not incompatible with Islam.
Lesser says he does not see Islamism as the ?single animating factor? in Turkish policy. He believes other factors animate Turkey?s shift away from the West - for one, Turkey?s stated goal of maximizing its regional influence through a ?zero problems with the neighbors? policy. The analyst sees it as a balancing act that has resulted in billions of dollars in Arab investment into Turkey and that also positions Turkey as an important conduit of oil and gas between Europe and Asia.
Secondly, Lesser thinks that after the military no longer determines national strategy, public opinion counts more than ever. And most Turks, says he, these days vote by the pocket book.