[Illustration: Relative Growth of Mileage and Traffic]
The rapid growth up to 1893 was suddenly interrupted by panic and subsequent industrial depression lasting for about four years. Recovery began in 1897, since which time the freight movement has increased by leaps and bounds from about 95,000,000,000 ton miles to 255,016,000,000 ton miles in 1910. It is obvious that the growth of transportation in any country is bound to be more rapid than the increase either in population or in wealth. It appears, indeed, almost as if the volume of transportation in the United States increased more nearly as the square of population than in direct proportion. It has been estimated that we forward two and a half times as much freight _per capita_ as some of the leading European countries like France. Our domestic population from 1890 to 1910 increased about fifty per cent. The railroad mileage grew at about the same rate. Yet the freight service surpassed this rate of growth more than six times over; and the passenger service augmented nearly as much. Both alike in 1910 were practically three times as great in volume as twenty years before. The diagram on page 78 is intended to illustrate the relative rapidity of this development. While population and mileage increased about one half, the railroads in 1910 hauled the equivalent of three times the volume of freight traffic handled in 1890. At the beginning of this period, the railroads had to seek the freight. Now it appears that traffic normally will seek the railroads. At times, even, as in 1906-1907, the railroads have actually sought to escape the flood of business presented.
The magnitude and importance of the growth of tonnage, as above described, is revealed by the rapid increase in railroad earnings. The course of these is shown by the succeeding chart on page 82. Gross revenues of American railroads in 1889 were about one billion dollars. In 1910 they amounted to $2,750,000,000. Thus it appears that gross earnings almost equalled three times the amount of twenty years ago. The net income available for dividends has grown even faster. The increase was, roughly speaking, about five fold; namely, from 101 millions in 1889 to 515 millions in 1910. Nearly three and one-half times as much money went annually to the owners of railroad securities as dividends and interest, besides leaving surplus earnings for 1910 of about 222 millions available for improvements and surplus. But the limit of utilization seems to have been about reached on many roads in 1906; and an era of extensive new capital outlay to increase the existing plants and facilities ensued. Indications are not lacking to show that at the height of activity before the industrial collapse of 1907-1908, such a point of saturation had been reached, especially in trunk line territory and on the northern transcontinental lines.[55] On the Northern Pacific, for instance, the ton mileage increased from 2.2 billions to 5.2 billions between 1900 and 1906. The Northwest was suddenly confronted at that time with the new issue of enlarging facilities, which had been slowly becoming apparent elsewhere in the country during the preceding decade. Grain actually rotted on the ground, and an acute coal famine occurred, because of sheer inability of the roads to care for the new traffic. Changes in methods of business also somewhat exaggerated this strain upon the carriers. Merchants now expect quick delivery to order. They object to stocking up months ahead, even when conditions are auspicious; therefore, business, when especially stimulated, comes with an irresistible rush. All these causes, coupled with undiscriminating attempts by inadequately bedded roads to imitate the methods of progressive ones by prematurely increasing their train loads, led to a practical breakdown of the transportation business of the country in the autumn of 1906. To the student of transportation, this congestion denoted the attainment of a point of saturation for the then-existing physical plant. The analogy to the case of the Pennsylvania Railroad, previously described, is obvious. Such a predicament is bound to arise in the development of any carrier in a rapidly growing country. Its fiscal significance will appear in due time.
