The Great Chinese Famine () was a famine that occurred between 1959 and 1961 in the People's Republic of China (PRC). Some scholars have also included the years 1958 or 1962. It is widely regarded as the deadliest famine and one of the greatest man-made disasters in human history, with an estimated death toll due to starvation that ranges in the tens of millions (15 to 55 million). The most stricken provinces were Anhui (18% dead), Chongqing (15%), Sichuan (13%), Guizhou (11%) and Hunan (8%).
The major contributing factors in the famine were the policies of the Great Leap Forward (1958 to 1962) and people's communes, launched by Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party Mao Zedong, such as inefficient distribution of food within the nation's planned economy; requiring the use of poor agricultural techniques; the Four Pests campaign that reduced sparrow populations (which disrupted the ecosystem); over-reporting of grain production; and ordering millions of farmers to switch to iron and steel production. During the Seven Thousand Cadres Conference in early 1962, Liu Shaoqi, then President of China, formally attributed 30% of the famine to natural disasters and 70% to man-made errors ("三分天灾, 七分人祸"). After the launch of Reforms and Opening Up, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officially stated in June 1981 that the famine was mainly due to the mistakes of the Great Leap Forward as well as the Anti-Rightist Campaign, in addition to some natural disasters and the Sino-Soviet split.
Terminology
Besides the name "Three Years of Great Famine" (), the famine has been known by many names.
The government of China called it:
Before June 1981: "Three Years of Natural Disasters" (). After June 1981: "Three Years of Difficulty" ().
Extent of the famine
Production drop
Policy changes affecting how farming was organized coincided with droughts and floods. Weather had been relatively mild for much of the 1950s, but became particularly bad by 1959, driving down crop yields.As a result, year-over-year grain production fell dramatically in China. The harvest was down by 15% in 1959 compared to 1958, and by 1960, it was at 70% of its 1958 level. Specifically, according to China's governmental data, crop production decreased from 200 million tons (or 400 billion jin) in 1958 to 170 million tons (or 340 billion jin) in 1959, and to 143.5 million tons (or 287 billion jin) in 1960.
Death toll
The excess mortality associated with the famine has been estimated by former CCP officials and international experts, with most giving a number in the range of 15–55 million deaths. Maoist author Mobo Gao claims that anti-Communist writers prefer to stretch the death toll number as high as possible while those sympathetic to the Chinese Revolution prefer to see the number as low as possible. Some specific estimates include the following (ranging from lowest to highest):
In 2021, Yang Songlin (杨松林), researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council in Henan, estimated that roughly 2.6–4 million people died during the famine years.
In 2016, Sun Jingxian (孙经先), scholar in applied mathematics and professor at Shandong University, concluded an estimate of 3.66 million "anomalous deaths" during the famine years.
In 2007, Utsa Patnaik, a Marxian economist, estimated that 11 million deaths were caused due to the famine.
In 2007, Daniel Houser, Barbara Sands, and Erte Xiao, writing in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, estimated that China suffered 15.4 million excess deaths during the famine, of which 69% (or 10.6 million) were attributable to effects stemming from national policies.
In 1989, a research team of the Chinese Academy of Sciences concluded that at least 15 million people died of malnutrition.
In 1999, Shujie Yao (姚书杰), chair of economics at the Business School of Middlesex University, concluded that 18 million people perished due to the famine.
In 1998, Li Chengrui (李成瑞), former Minister of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, estimated 22 million deaths. His estimate was based on the 27 million deaths estimated by Ansley J. Coale, and the 17 million deaths estimated by Jiang Zhenghua (蒋正华).
In 1987, Peng Xizhe (彭希哲), Professor of Population and Development at Fudan University, estimated 23 million excess deaths during the famine.
In 1987, Judith Banister, Director of Global Demographics at the Conference Board, estimated 30 million excess deaths from 1958 to 1961.
In 1999, Vaclav Smil, a Czech-Canadian scientist and policy analyst, estimated 30 million deaths.