“Japan may, and probably does, meditate a renewal of her efforts to establish a footing on the Asiatic mainland. Possibly, she may have in view the ultimate acquisition of the Philippine Islands! (This was written the year before the Spanish War.) But, whatever may be her territorial ambitions for the future, it is as plain as an open book that she intends, before she moves again, to place herself in a position to disregard and defy any external interference. This may be the true meaning of Japan’s extreme activity in naval preparation at this time.
“I may say without violation of confidence that a Japanese gentleman of distinction, a civilian, not long ago remarked in conversation on this subject that ‘while Japan was forced by circumstances to yield much at Shimonoseki that she had fairly conquered, she still secured indemnity enough to build a navy that would enable her to do better next time!’
“In view of all these facts, the question at once arises: Are Russia and the United States prepared or are they preparing to meet such conditions, and to maintain their proper naval status as Pacific powers? My answer to that question, based on observations of Japan’s naval strength already in sight and on what I know of her intended programme for further increase in the immediate future, as compared with the relative conditions of Russia and this country, would be in the negative.
“Just now Russia is trying the experiment of reliance on her own Imperial dock-yards, including two semi-private shipyards under government control; while the United States has halted completely. The Russian dock-yards are efficient, as far as they go, and turn out good work, judging from such specimens as I have seen. But their capacity is not adequate to the task that is presented by the situation which I have delineated. No other nation relies wholly on its own public dock-yards for new naval constructions. England, with public dock-yards almost equal in capacity to those of the rest of the world combined, builds over 65 per cent. of her displacement and 97 per cent. of her horse-power by contract with private shipyards and machine-shops. France, with very great dock-yard facilities, builds a large proportion of her hulls and machinery by contract. The same is true of Germany, Italy, and the United States. But Russia has no great private ship-building facilities, and there are no visible signs of the immediate development of resources of that description.