Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started in late February 2022, more than 300,000 Russian citizens and residents are estimated to have left Russia by mid-March 2022, at least 500,000 by the end of August 2022, and an additional 400,000 by early October, for a total of approximately 900,000. This number includes economic migrants, conscientious objectors, and some political refugees.
Reasons for exodus
There have been at least three waves of Russian emigration.
First wave
In the first wave, immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, journalists, politicians, and tech workers fled. Many sought to evade criminal prosecution for exercising free speech regarding the invasion. In March, President Vladimir Putin introduced prison sentences of up to 15 years for publishing "fake news" about Russian military operations. More than 2,000 people were charged by May 2022 under the laws prohibiting "fake" information about the military. Nina Belyayeva, a Communist Party deputy in the Voronezh Oblast Legislative Assembly, stated that she fled Russia due to threats of criminal prosecution and imprisonment for having spoken against the invasion, saying, "I realized that it was better to leave now. Once a criminal case is opened, it could be too late." Journalist Boris Grozovski stated that "We are refugees. Personally, I was wanted by the police in Russia for distributing anti-war petitions... We ran not from bullets, bombs and missiles, but from prison. If I wrote what I write now while in Russia, I would inevitably go to prison for 15–20 years." Actress Chulpan Khamatova stayed in exile in Latvia after she signed a petition against the war in Ukraine. She stated: "it was made clear to me it would be undesirable for me to go back," adding "I know I am not a traitor. I love my motherland very much." Bolshoi Ballet dancer Olga Smirnova left Russia to continue her career in the Netherlands in protest of the war. As for tech workers, for many it was made clear that they would have to leave Russia as a condition of employment; in any case, many tech workers can work remotely. According to a Russian IT industry trade group, approximately 50,000-70,000 IT workers fled in the invasion's first month.
Among the Russians who left Russia after the invasion of Ukraine were pop legend Alla Pugacheva and comedian Maxim Galkin, television journalist Alexander Nevzorov, diplomat Boris Bondarev, politician and economist Anatoly Chubais, businessman Oleg Tinkov, rapper Oxxxymiron, activist Diana Isakova, and theater director Dmitry Krymov.
As of December 2022, more than 4,000 people were prosecuted under "fake news" laws in connection with the war in Ukraine. Russian journalist Maria Ponomarenko was sentenced to six years in prison for publishing information about the Mariupol theatre airstrike. At least 1,000 Russian journalists have fled Russia since February 2022.
Second wave
A second wave became apparent by July 2022, and this wave consisted more generally of middle and upper class people and parents who had required longer to prepare to emigrate, for example; people with businesses or people who had to wait for their children's school year to end.
In June, it was expected that around 15,000 millionaires would leave Russia in 2022.
Third wave
Following Putin's announcement of partial mobilization on 21 September 2022, a third wave of Russian emigration began, with estimates of hundreds of thousands of male citizens fleeing. In the first week after the announcement, 98,000 Russians fled to Kazakhstan. On 24 September alone over 8,500 Russians entered Finland by land, a 62% increase on the previous Saturday. On the following day, it was reported that "On the border with Georgia, queues of Russian cars stretch back more than ," while at checkpoints bordering the regions of Kostanay and Western Kazakhstan, "footage of cars queuing to leave Russia show lines that stretch as far as the eye can see."
In this third wave alone, nearly 300,000 Russian citizens had left Russia before 27 September, with that number approaching 400,000 by 4 October. An upper estimate is for 700,000 Russians to have fled conscription since it was announced. Many went to Kazakhstan, Serbia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Georgia, and Finland.
Putin signed a decree introducing prison terms of up to 15 years for wartime acts, including voluntary surrender and desertion during mobilization or war.
Actor Artur Smolyaninov fled Russia in October 2022. He was charged for "discrediting" the military under the "fake news" laws, for making anti-war statements after he had left Russia.